Pitchers and Catchers Report

3 weeks until pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training. Thank good. We are about to enter the longest part of the year - February (also the shortest month. Weird.). I don't know why Feb. is so bad, but hearing the countdown to pitchers and catchers always makes me happy.

In other baseball off season news, here is an awesome quote from Peter Gammons' ESPN blog about the Indians:

"This winter's quiet, with all that is in place to repeat as the winningest team in baseball, is testament to all the work the Indians have done the previous seven years."

With all the hype surrounding the Tigers monster free agent moves, there is growing concern in Cleveland that the lack of counter moves is unwise. Not so, The Indians have made 100% more wise moves than the Tigers, at a tenth of the expense, stretched over the last seven years. Start comparing those offseason moves and see how you feel about 2008. or 2009. Let me put it this way: below is the roster of a team that tied for first in the Majors in record, beat the Yankees at home in October and sent them packing, and had the eventual World Series winner a game away from elimination:

Pos. Name Year when current contract expires
C – Victor Martinez (2010)
1b – Ryan Garko (2012)
2b – Asdrubal Cabrera (2013)
SS – Jhonny Peralta (2011)
3b – Casey Blake (2008) (and he batted 9th)
OF – Grady Sizemore (2012)
OF – Franklin Guiterrez (2012)
DH – Travis Hafner (2013)

SP – CC Sabathia (2008, but supposedly we’re renegotiating to extend his contract. It’s “our first off season priority.”)
SP – Francisco Carmona (2013)
SP – Jake Westbrook (2010)
SP – Paul Byrd (we did exercise an option on him to bring him back)
SP – We have four potential candidates (Cliff Lee, Jeremy Sowers, Aaron Laffey, and Adam Miller (AAA prospect))

RP – Rafael Bentancourt (2009)
RP – Jensen Lewis (2013)
RP – Rafael Perez (2012)
RP – Joe Borowski (exercised club option on him)
RP – Aaron Fultz (exercised club option on him)
RP – Tom Mastny (FA, he’s pretty much a lock until someone like the cubs offer him a huge contract)

FA’s – Kenny Lofton, Trot Nixon (I'm sad to lose Kenny, but David Delucci is back from the dead

Backups – C Kelly Shoppach (contract up), 2b Josh Bard (contract up), Jason Michaels (2008)

So yeah, a team that was one game from the World Series returns at least 8/9 of the lineup, at least 4/5 of the rotation (with the 5th starter already being an Indian, just not a regluar rotation pitcher), and all but one or two of the bullpen. That’s a worst case scenario of losing three players before spring training.

Tribe in '08. And '09. And '10 . . .


In other news, I just returned from a law seminar in Vegas. I didn't gamble at all. I'm probably the most boring person to ever visit that city. The food was amazing though. First night, we ate at a French Steakhouse with the best Ribeye I have ever had. It came sizzling over small baked potatoes, creamed spinach, and sliced mushrooms. For an app, I hada Ceasar salad shaped like a crown.

Second night, I ate at an Italian restaurant. I had prosciutto with grilled pita bread and sliced mozzarella. For dinner I had Chicken Parmesean. The chicken was amazingly tender because it was the the thigh. Last night there, we ate at Wolfgang's Puck restaurant and I had Duck Confit and 13-layer tiramisu. Gourmet all over the place. Even the sandwich shops were unbelievable. For lunch, 3 colleagues and I got an appetizer sampler from the local cafe. it came with Buffalo Chicken Tenders, Spinach Dip, Spring Rools, Chicken Taquitos, Shrimp Rolls, and Potstickers. It was amazing.

One note about Vegas, it's somewhat interesting that no matter how nice and luxurious the hotel rooms, lobby, shops, restaurants all look, the casino always looks sad and despressing. I'm not adverse to gambling, I just get sad when I see people invested in the casino with all their hopes and with more than they can afford.

I'm a big believer in statistics and math when it comes to gambling. For example, the pay out on rolling a hard 12 (6 on both dice) in craps is 30:1 (bet $1 and you get 30 back). yet, the odds on actually rolling a hard 12 is 1:36. Thus, in 36 rolls, you will roll it 1 time. Thus, if you bet $1 on 36 consecutive rolls to hit a hard 12, you would hit it once for a payout fo $30 (and profit of $29), and lose 35 other times for a total cost of $35. Thus, you just spent $6 to roll dice thirty six times.

Now expand that notion to every casino game (except poker) - Blackjack, Pai Gow, Roulette, etc. You have the same odds working against you. In the long run, you are slowly losing money because the casino is not giving you even money on some edge bets.

Thus, my attitude towards those table games is that I sit down with the same amount of money I don't mind spending at a bar for a long night out (e.g. $100). If I can make that amount of money last until it's gone and I've gotten enough free drinks and had a lot of fun with friends for 3 or more hours, I was successful. To me, there is little difference in doing that compared to sitting in a noisy club for three hours, getting six drinks and paying 100 bucks for alcohol, cover, tip, and food.

Above I mentioned that poker is different (and it is) because you can actually control the odds so you are only putting money up when you get a bigger payout. For example, using the craps hypothetical above, what if the payout wa 100:1? or 50:1? or 37:1? or 36.1:1? Then you'd be foolish NOT to bet on that. If the payout was 37:1, then in 36 attempts, you would make 37 dollars, and pay 35 dollars. That's a total of 2 dollars, or roughly 5 cents a roll. You are make five cents every time someone rolls the dice.

First dice rolling question: What if someone offered the following job - I'll pay you five cents every time you roll these two dice, no matter what comes up? Would you take it? Assuming you roll once a second, how much money is that an hour? Answer below.

Second dice rolling question: Go back to the craps example where it pays 30:1 on a hard 12. If you take this bet and the dice are rolled once a second, how much money do you lose?

That's how it is in poker. Sometimes. In the simplest sense, you call a bet only when the pot pays you back larger than the odds that your hand is good. For example, let's say the odds of hitting a flush (which will surely win) are 1:4. Let's say the betting structure of the game is such that every bet is 1$. An opponent bets before you get your card on your 1:4 odds and the pot is 3 dollars. Do you call? What if the pot is $1,000? $100? $5?

To sum it up another way "I have never seen a rich gambler or a poor casino owner." Casinos can be fun, but they can also be sad depending on who you see at the tables. Sometimes it's people, who in reality are paying a small fee to sit and drink and smoke, throwing more money than they can afford into a system with a negative return.

*Answer to first dice question: if you get paid 5 cents a roll and roll it once a second, you make $180 an hour, $1,440 in an 8 hour work day, $57,600 in a 40 hour work week, and $2,880,000 in a 50 week work year. I would totally take that job, as long as they provided medical coverage for my carpal tunnel.

*Answer to second dice question: if you get paid 30:1 and roll the dice once a second, you lose $612 an hour, $4,896 in an 8 hour work day, $195,840 in a week, and $9,792,000 in a year. Sorry if you liked playing craps. But this is why casinos are in awesome and expensive hotels (most of the time).